Before Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, Saudi Arabia was inching toward a groundbreaking diplomatic deal with Israel in return for a US defence pact. But the Israeli assault on Gaza, and more recently on Iran, has hardened Riyadh’s stance and made it less likely to strike a deal anytime soon.

Critics feared it would plunge the Middle East into a wider war. That doomsday scenario has not come to pass, at least for now: Iran made only symbolic retaliation against America; soon after, a ceasefire ended the fighting between Iran and Israel.

Netanyahu floats reviving normalisation with the kingdom but Riyadh views state as an increasingly destabilising force