The probability that NBER will someday determine a national recession began in the US between December 2025 and December 2026 ...

Amazon has ordered its latest YA turn. The streamer has handed a greenlight to a series adaptation of The Probability of ...

Polymarket rate cut forecasts show a 97% probability of a 25 bps interest rate reduction ahead of the Federal Reserve ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

The basic principle of probability applies to a near infinite parade of situations. Basically, analysts use probability as a means of determining the likelihood of outcomes and occurrences given a ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Worse, the models “hallucinate” — meaning, they invent. A study of AI tools used in the legal domain shows 58% to 82% ...

Most humans don’t have a natural facility with probability. It’s not intuitive, like the ability to walk or talk. Learning the mechanics of chance takes time, but is less essential than, say, reading, ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...

The Probability of Miracles” has scored a series order from Amazon MGM Studios. The Wendy Wunder novel will be adapted into ...