Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (SF Fed) works to advance the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build a stronger economy for all Americans. As part of the U.S. central ...

Community Engagement and Analysis works to understand the economic experiences of lower-income households and communities to help build a stronger economy for all Americans. ENGAGE: We engage our ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

The labor force participation (LFP) rate for prime-age workers surged from early 2021 through early 2023, especially for women. This helped reduce the large shortfall of available workers relative to ...

Download PDF (pdf, 1.0 mb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 130 kb) Summary The 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) highlights findings from the fifth Diary study conducted by the ...

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to essentially zero. It took further measures to support the functioning of financial markets and the flow of ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

In many of the world’s advanced economies, central banks have set policy rates close to or below zero. Indeed, negative rates have been relatively common for an extended time in many countries. The ...

Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...

The American Rescue Plan provided fiscal support during a strong economic rebound, raising concerns about the risk of fueling inflation. One way to assess this risk of economic overheating uses the ...