We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about ...

Aggregate real U.S. GDP fell by roughly 26 percent between 1929 and 1932, yet the severity of the Great Depression varied dramatically across states: CPI-deflated income per capita declined by 15 ...

We estimate how expenditures on durable goods respond to transitory income shocks using variation from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. The estimated responses are large: Households spent about 80 ...

Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of ...