We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about ...

Aggregate real U.S. GDP fell by roughly 26 percent between 1929 and 1932, yet the severity of the Great Depression varied dramatically across states: CPI-deflated income per capita declined by 15 ...

Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of ...

We estimate how expenditures on durable goods respond to transitory income shocks using variation from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. The estimated responses are large: Households spent about 80 ...

The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose and peaked at 5.2 percent in late May, its highest level since before the 2007–08 global financial crisis. The 10-year TIPS-Treasury premium declined by nearly ...

Between 1980 and 2022, China’s share of global research publications in top journals rose from a negligible level to 32 percent, while the US share declined from 60 to about 24 percent.

The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans, so any impact on US crop yields will have implications for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level crop ...

We combine nine previously proposed measures to construct an index of political polarization among US adults. We find that the growth in polarization in recent years is largest for the demographic ...