We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about ...

Aggregate real U.S. GDP fell by roughly 26 percent between 1929 and 1932, yet the severity of the Great Depression varied dramatically across states: CPI-deflated income per capita declined by 15 ...

Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of ...

We estimate how expenditures on durable goods respond to transitory income shocks using variation from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. The estimated responses are large: Households spent about 80 ...

Lauren Cohen, David Kim and Eric So received a Best Paper Prize from the Eastern Finance Association Meetings. Cohen, with ...

Most US innovation stems from firms that operate R&D facilities in many local markets. IBM and Google are two prominent examples, with R&D activities—measured by patenting—in approximately 70 and 20 ...

Shifting from realization-based to accrual-based taxation of the gains on founders’ equity would dilute the stakes of those who succeed but also provide some insurance to those who fail. To evaluate ...

The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds rose and peaked at 5.2 percent in late May, its highest level since before the 2007–08 global financial crisis. The 10-year TIPS-Treasury premium declined by nearly ...

Between 1980 and 2022, China’s share of global research publications in top journals rose from a negligible level to 32 percent, while the US share declined from 60 to about 24 percent.

Chile's cybernetic coordination system under Salvador Allende — during the October 1972 national truckers' strike, which cut aggregate industrial output by roughly 9 percent. Using monthly data for ...

We systematically analyze FOMC meeting records from 1937 to 2025 to construct meeting-level measures of the Fed’s real-time attribution of inflation to demand and supply pressures. We document ...

This paper studies the labor market effects of recent state-level policies that require employers to disclose salary information in job postings. Leveraging a difference-in-differences design, we show ...